KABUL: Afghanistan’s trade has doubled since the Taliban took over in 2021, the latest government data shows, but experts warn there is no evidence of economic growth as the import-export deficit continues to soar amid Western-imposed sanctions.
In 2024, Afghanistan’s trade value reached over $12.4 billion, more than twice the $6.1 billion recorded in 2021, according to data released by the National Statistics and Information Authority.
“The political change in the country in 2021 affected the country’s economy in all aspects … (But) Afghanistan’s trade, particularly exports, has seen a 100 percent progress,” Akhundzada Abdul Salam Jawad, spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, told Arab News earlier this week.
Under the Taliban government, the South Asian country saw exports rise from $850 million in 2021 to about $1.8 billion last year. Imports, however, have also surged from $5.3 billion to $10.6 billion in the same period.
While according to Jawad it was “a sign that the country’s trade is going toward stability and growth,” experts are warning about the impacts of Afghanistan’s widening trade deficit in an already fragile economy which was severely affected by US-imposed sanctions and had suffered through two years of sharp economic contraction.
Despite a modest recovery of about 2.7 percent in 2023-24, the World Bank estimates it could take over a decade for the economy to return to pre-Taliban growth levels.
“Our imports are increasing every day, and this is hindering the progress in local production together with other problems such as shortage of electricity and a lack of infrastructure … Necessary actions must be taken to increase exports,” Khan Jan Alokozay, deputy head of the Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Investment, told Arab News.
To reduce the trade gap the Afghan government must work toward strengthening its industrial sector, according to Amin Stanekzai, economist and lecturer at the Rokhan Institute of Higher Education in the eastern province of Nangarhar.
This means facilitating investment, supporting local businesses to enter international markets and encouraging people to use and support local products.
“In order to reduce the deficit, the country’s market needs should be met locally and domestic production is supported while domestic capacities need to be improved,” he told Arab News.
“Afghanistan is still completely an importing country and until this situation changes, speaking of economic growth is irrelevant.”
